Presidential Race Ouija Board
The DowJones Industrial Average (DJIA) is 28,442 as I write. Is that significant? The folks at the Socionomics Institute say it is. According to editor Matt Lampert. History is on the side of a Trump victory. The stock market being the best gauge of social mood, Lampert writes the incumbent wins 87.5 percent of the time if the stock market (DJIA is used as a proxy in this case)has gained 20 percent or more in the three years leading up to election day.
That magic DJIA number is 28,052. So, as of today Trump has nearly 400 Dow points of cushion. But, keep an eye on the Dow, 400 points can be lost overnight, in a morning, or an afternoon. Now you know why Mr. Trump pays so much attention to the stock market. That’s the only poll he trusts or cares about.
Republicans on Capitol Hill aren’t paying much attention to the work of the Socionomics Institute. Catie Edmondson writes for the New York Times,
many Republicans have concluded that Mr. Trump is heading for a loss in November. And they are grasping to save themselves and rushing to re-establish their reputations for a coming struggle for their party’s identity.
In Europe, where they take action on this sort of stuff, Betfair claims, “Joe Biden 1.68 is still the favourite to win the election on 3 November but Trump 2.48 is now a 40% chance to get a second term, having been as low as 31% a week ago.”
“At the same time Biden has gone from 69% likely to win the White House to 60,” writes Max Liu. “That's still a strong position for a challenger but the momentum is swinging to Trump, in the betting at least.”
Local South Point bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro laments the fact that U.S. books can’t take action on the election. On October 9th he tweeted, “remember kids can't bet this in the usa. but every country around the world benefits by taking bets and we can't. you would not believe the interviews i do and the response i still get thinking you can.WE ARE BEHIND THE TIMES”
On September 30, “i have been saying for a long while i would rather book this election than bet it. Did you see some of the figures on the amount of money bet on our election around the http://world.it is staggering. we should benefit but we are still the stepchild, WHEN WILL WE WAKE UP”
Dilbert creator Scott Adams, who predicted the Trump victory four years ago, told Ari Melber on MSNBC’s “The Beat” that Trump has solved all the scary problems except the coronavirus pandemic. And, Trump is unable to distract people from the pandemic. “If he loses it will be because of coronavirus,” Adams said. But, when asked by Melber on October 19th if Trump wins or loses, Adams said, “As of today, I see him winning.”
Republicans are not so sure.
Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska pounded Mr. Trump in a telephone town hall event with constituents, eviscerating the president’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, accused him of “flirting” with dictators and white supremacists, and alienating voters so broadly that he might cause a “Republican bloodbath” in the Senate.
Ted Cruz is also warning of a “Republican bloodbath of Watergate proportions,” while Lindsey Graham merely says Trump may lose.
“As it becomes evident that he is a mere political mortal like everyone else, you’re really starting to see the jockeying taking place for what the future of the Republican Party is,” Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican congressman from Florida who did not support Mr. Trump in 2016 told the NYT. “What we heard from Senator Sasse yesterday was the beginning of that process.”
We’ll soon know. Or, maybe not so soon.
